Tournament Predictor

How do teams progress from third place in their Euro 2024 group?

Euro 2016 was the first tournament where third place group finishers qualified for the knockout rounds. Portugal finished third in their group in 2016 and went on to win the tournament!

So how does it work, what is likely to happen and who will the teams that qualify in third play?

In summary

Out of the teams that finish in third place across the 6 groups, the 4 with the highest amount of points will progress to the knockout rounds.

The knockout games those 4 teams will play depends on which groups the teams qualify from.

What if teams are level on points?

If teams are level on points it will come down to:

  1. 1. goal difference
  2. 2. goals scored
  3. 3. number of wins
  4. 4. lower disciplinary points total
  5. 5. position in the European Qualifiers rankings

How many points are you likely to need to progress from third place?

With 4 out of the 6 groups going through, it gives a good chance to your team!

Looking back at the last two tournaments gives a good indication of what is required. The data shows that 4 points will give teams a great chance of going through (though its not a certainty). It also shows teams are likely to need at least 3 points and then a good goal difference.

Euro 2016

GroupThird PlacePointsGoal difference
Group AAlbania3-2
Group BSlovakia40
Group CNorthern Ireland30
Group DTurkey3-2
Group ERepublic of Ireland4-2
Group FPortugal30

Euro 2020

GroupThird PlacePointsGoal difference
Group ASwitzerland4-1
Group BFinland3−2
Group CUkraine3−1
Group DCzech Republic4+2
Group ESlovakia3-5
Group FPortugal4+1

What knockout games will the third place teams play in?

This is where it gets a bit more complicated!

In summary though, if a team finishes in 3rd position, they will play a group winner from group B, C, E or F.

The simplest way to work out the matches a given team could play is by visiting the team route page where you can see all the possibilities for that team.

Overall though, there are four games that teams who finish third can play in:

Date3rd from GroupOpponentLocation
Sun 30th June - 5PMA, D, E, or F1st group BGelsenkirchen
Sun 30th June - 8PMD, E, or F1st group CCologne
Mon 1st July - 5PMA, B, or C1st group FDusseldorf
Tue 2nd July - 5PMA, B, C, or D1st group EMunich

Based on the groups which have the highest placed third place finishers, UEFA has predetermined the games they will play in.

The groups where the four teams have come fromThe games that the teams from each group will play
30th June 5PM 30th June 8PM 2nd July 5PM 1st July 5PM
A B C DADBC
A B C EAEBC
A B C FAFBC
A B D EDEAB
A B D FDFAB
A B E FEFBA
A C D EEDCA
A C D FFDCA
A C E FEFCA
A D E FEFDA
B C D EEDBC
B C D FFDCB
B C E FFECB
B D E FFEDB
C D E FFEDC

An example

Let's look at an example showing for each group the points total the third place team has:

  • Group A - Scotland - 3 points
  • Group B - Croatia - 4 points
  • Group C - Serbia - 2 points
  • Group D - Austria - 1 point
  • Group E - Romania - 3 points
  • Group F - Georgia - 1 point

In this example, Scotland, Croatia, Serbia, and Romania have the highest points and would qualify to the knockout rounds. Austria and Georgia would be knocked out.

The four teams came from Group A, B, C, and E, so they will play in these games:

  • Scotland (from Group A) will play against 1st place from group B, on Sun 30th June at 5PM
  • Croatia (from Group B) will play against 1st place from group E on Tue 2nd July at 5PM
  • Serbia (from Group C) will play against 1st place from group F on Mon 1st July at 5PM
  • Romania (from Group E) will play against 1st place from group C on Sun 30th June at 8PM